The county's largest IT company TCS on Friday reported a 7.2 per cent jump in December quarter net to Rs 8,701 crore on a consolidated basis, and seemed to suggest the worst is behind by projecting double-digit revenue growth for FY22. The company, a cash cow for Tata Sons, saw a 5.4 per cent growth in revenue at Rs 42,015 crore for the quarter. Operating profit margin came in at 26.6 per cent despite implementing wage hikes, after consistently missing the 26-28 per cent aspirational band for many quarters.
With concern on food inflation ebbing with the monsoon progressing well, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is warming up to the idea of a change in stance to "neutral" from "withdrawal of accommodation", according to economists. In his speech on Thursday during the annual event of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry-Indian Banks' Association, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said: "The balance between inflation and growth is well-poised."
Rating agencies Crisil and Icra on Monday revised down their India growth projections for the current fiscal and the second quarter mainly due to the ripple effect of slowdown in global growth and mixed crop output. Crisil downgraded the India growth forecast by 30 bps to 7 per cent while Icra pegged the economic expansion at 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of FY2022-23. "We have revised down our forecast for real gross domestic product growth to 7 per cent for fiscal 2023 from 7.3 per cent, primarily because of the slowdown in global growth that has started to impact our exports and industrial activity.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has identified "climate shocks" as a risk to food inflation rates and overall price rise while stating that the outlook for the country's economic growth remains bright. In its Annual Report for 2023-24, released on Thursday, the central bank said easing supply-chain pressures, broad-based softening in core inflation, and early indications of an above-normal southwest monsoon meant well for the inflation outlook in 2024-25. "The increasing incidence of climate shocks, however, imparts considerable uncertainty to the food inflation and overall inflation outlook," said the RBI while noting headline inflation moderated by 1.3 percentage points on an annual average basis to 5.4 per cent in 2023-24.
'Domestic investors are opening up to the idea of high-growth Internet companies as a pool of value creation.' 'They like the execution that they see with Zepto, and for us, that is the most important factor.'
The market price action seems to point in this direction. Let's hope we finally break out. It is about time! asserts Akash Prakash.
Constantine interviewed by Chennaiyin FC
Chief economist at State Bank of India has revised downward the full-year growth forecast to a low 6.8 per cent from 7.5 per cent earlier for FY2023, citing "the way below GDP numbers for the first quarter". The National Statistical Office on Wednesday released the Q1 growth numbers which showed a consensus growth of 13.5 per cent, pulled down by the poor show of the manufacturing sector, which reported a paltry 4.8 per cent expansion in the first three months of FY23, negating the robust show by the services sector. Consensus forecast was 15-16.7 per cent of which the RBI made the highest forecast of 16.7 per cent.
This period of strong growth not only offers opportunities but also calls for strategic considerations to ensure sustainable development and equitable prosperity in the years to come, suggests Sujan Hajra.
One could argue that India is not troubled in the same way as China is by a declining population and structural problems in real estate/construction and finance. But India has serious trade and fiscal imbalances, and excessive dependence on capital expenditure by the government, points out T N Ninan.
'In India, the GenAI startup ecosystem is unfolding with remarkable speed, signalling a new era of technological advancement and investment opportunities.'
'The private sector believes that some enablers in labour-intensive sectors like apparel, toys, tourism, and media retail, can unlock a lot of jobs.'
RBI expects the growth in the next fiscal to strengthen gradually, notwithstanding the significant headwinds.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 20,170 crore ($2.4 billion) recently. This marked the fifth-highest weekly outflow from overseas funds since the beginning of 2008 and the largest since the last week of March 2020. Due to the Covid scare, FPIs had sold shares worth Rs 21,951 crore during that week, causing the market to decline by nearly 20 per cent.
The sentiment in the real estate industry turned optimistic during October-December 2020 and the outlook for the next six months is positive on the back of revival in demand for both residential and office properties, according to a survey by Knight Frank India-FICCI-Naredco. The 27th edition of 'Real Estate Sentiment Index Q4 2020 survey' of developers, banks, financial institutions and private equity players operating in the sector was released on Monday in a video-conference. As per the report, the 'Current Sentiments Score', for the first time in 2020, entered the optimistic zone at 54 points in Q4 (October-December) 2020, a significant jump of 14 points over the previous quarter.
After navigating the turbulent pandemic waves, the recovering Indian economy is now sailing through unchartered waters of rising coronavirus cases, spiralling commodity prices and spiking inflation though the lighthouse of sustainable growth remains visible. As 2022 begins, a raft of developments, ranging from Budgetary announcements to continuation of stimulus measures to monetary policy, will set the tone for the domestic economy, which is projected to grow more than 9 per cent in the current fiscal ending March 2022. The country's continuing massive vaccination drive and 'precaution' doses starting for select categories of people this month will provide a firewall against any steep spike in coronavirus cases amid the emergence of the Omicron variant.
The consumer durables segment declined by 23.4 per cent in June, as against a dip of 10.1 per cent a year ago.
He said the Indian economy in the last few years has become very open, it is integrated globally, it invites investments in most sectors and has made its procedures for investment extremely simple.
India's likely medium-term potential growth will almost certainly be markedly lower than that experienced in pre-pandemic years, warns Shankar Acharya, former chief economic advisor to the Government of India.
India has a long way to go to catch up with Thailand let alone the US.
Real estate will prosper, small developers won't.
The S&P BSE Realty Index has emerged as one of the top-performing sectors, yielding a remarkable 45 per cent return over the past six months. The three leading players, listed by market capitalisation, have substantially enriched investor wealth by 43-70 per cent during this period. If the second quarter (Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24) updates from Macrotech Developers (Lodha) and Sobha, along with industry data for the quarter, serve as any indication, the trend of strong bookings for larger players is expected to continue.
The job market saw an uptrend in the March quarter (Q1), with job interviews increasing 13.71 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to over 30 million, according to Apna.co, India's largest jobs and professional networking platform. It recorded a 42 per cent QoQ growth in its employer base. As a result of the second wave of Covid-19 last year, sectors such as healthcare, delivery, and e-commerce were booming while others had fairly low employment.
Should deposit growth continue to outpace credit growth, banks may end up ceding some hard-earned 25-50 bps improvement in profitability or net interest margin gained in the past two years.
Polarisation in the performance of Indian banks will persist as many large public sector banks are still saddled with weak assets, high credit costs, and poor earnings, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. It said State Bank of India and leading private sector banks have largely addressed their asset quality challenges, and their profitability is improving more sharply than the banking system. In its Global Banking Outlook-2023 report, S&P said economic recovery is driving credit costs to cyclical low levels and stronger balance sheets and higher demand should boost bank loan growth, but deposit growth will lag.
Assuring red carpet to investors, Commerce and Industry Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday said the government is fully committed to creating business-friendly environment to boost the manufacturing sector which will push India to a higher growth trajectory.
"We have to stand in readiness to go beyond keeping Arjuna's eye to deploying policy instruments, if necessary" to contain inflation, said Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday. Headline consumer price index-based inflation projection for the second quarter of 2023-24 has been revised up substantially, primarily due to the price shock from vegetables, at 6.2 per cent by the RBI form 5.2 per cent estimated in June. Unveiling the bi-monthly monetary policy, Governor Das said the moderation in headline inflation to 4.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2023-24 was in line with the projections set out in the June MPC meeting.
Reversal in the declining economic growth trajectory is clearly the need of the hour and all steps should be taken to bring about this change.
India's economy will do well once vaccination reaches a critical mass as pent up demand, global recovery and easy financial conditions will boost activities, RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Ashima Goyal said on Tuesday.
The chief statistician feels there should be a rebound after companies integrate and adopt the GST system
The stock of auto component major Bosch was up 2.5 per cent on Wednesday and in the process hit its 52-week high. Expectations of higher volumes of medium and heavy commercial vehicles' (M&HCV), rise in content supplies on account of BS VI stage 2 implementation from April, and improved profitability are some of the positives for the stock. In addition to this, the company appointed a new managing director and joint managing director last week, which will come into effect from July 1.
An improvement in political relations, anchored in a restoration of peace and tranquillity at the border, could open up opportunities for expanded economic and commercial relations between them, suggests former foreign secretary Ambassador Shyam Saran.
'Investors should ideally consider equity allocations from a medium-to-long term perspective.'
The fundamental debate remains where you stand on the long-term growth question. That is what every investor must monitor and come to their own conclusions, suggests Akash Prakash.
Puneet Wadhwa and Debashish Pachal locate real estate stocks to watch out for.
After a contraction in the current financial year, India's economy is forecast to bounce back with a sharp growth rate of 9.5 per cent next year provided it avoids further deterioration in financial sector health, Fitch Ratings said on Wednesday. The coronavirus pandemic will lead to shrinking of the already slowing economy in 2020-21 that started in April. Fitch Ratings forecast a 5 per cent contraction in the GDP in the ongoing financial year.
Fitch Ratings on Monday cautioned that the Indian government has little fiscal headroom at its disposal to respond to possible shocks to growth given the country's lowest investment grade credit rating with a negative outlook. "India's public debt/GDP ratio, at about 87 per cent in FY21, is well above the median of around 60% for 'BBB' rated sovereigns. "We revised the Outlook on India's rating to Negative, from Stable, in June 2020, partly owing to our assumptions about the impact of the pandemic on public finance metrics. "The government has little fiscal headroom at its current rating level to respond to possible shocks to growth," it said in a report.
'GIFT City is now on a growth trajectory,' says Tapan Ray, MD and group CEO, GIFT City, 'The time has come for the GIFT City to take the big leap and emerge as the next financial hub of Asia.'
Housing sales jumped over 4.5 times year-on-year in April-June across eight cities to 74,330 units on lower base effect, while demand was up 5 per cent from the previous quarter, according to PropTiger data. Housing sales stood at 15,968 units in the April-June period last year and 70,623 units in the January-March quarter of 2022. The price of residential properties rose 5-9 per cent annually, driven by rise in input costs, inflationary pressures and premium attached with ready-to-move-in inventory. Pune and Chennai saw maximum appreciation at 9 per cent each.
'The immediate attempt by China is to get its way and gain territory through small steps without having a full-scale war.'
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